Diplomaten wijzen op blokkerende rol Frankrijk tijdens IGC (en) - Main contents

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - While the sudden collapse of the Constitution talks in Brussels on Saturday (13 December) was very unexpected for most participants; French president Jacques Chirac was perhaps not so surprised.

Most diplomats pointed to France as the crucial reason for the breakdown of the talks.

At breakfast on Friday, Mr Chirac had already hinted that there would be no agreement and that the summit would end mid Saturday, reports Der Standard.

Now, being able to blame the breakdown on Spain and Poland may suit the French president as it gives him more room to shape the future of Europe.

German-French balance

Although Paris officially supported the German position on the proposed new voting system (double majority voting), there were also fears that such a system could, in the long run, limit French influence in Europe.

With the Nice Treaty, after fierce negotiating by Mr Chirac both France and Germany have the same number of votes - 29 each - in the law-making council of ministers.

However, a double majority voting system - as proposed in the draft Constitution - would change this historical balance between Germany and France.

The double majority voting system would mean that a majority of member states representing 60% of the population would be needed for any decisions to be taken.

With 82 million Germans against 60 million French, the two countries would no longer be equal in the decision making process.

Towards Turkish EU membership

With the perspective of Turkish membership of the European Union, it would very much be possible for a German-Turkish alliance some time in the future to set the European agenda and block new decisions.

"The system proposed by the Convention will permit Germany to dominate Europe. This would be followed by a growth in Turkish influence, eventually surpassing that of Germany between 2015 and 2020," writes Philippe de Villiers, French MEP and president of the Mouvement pour la France, in Le Figaro.

In the corridors of the Brussels summit, diplomats indicated that Paris might be willing to wait even until the Dutch presidency in the second half of next year for serious negotiations to resume.

Hard-core Europe

French and German leaders have for months been examining the idea of a "hard core" Europe of countries willing to push EU integration forward if there is no agreement on the Constitution.

France has already long been hesitant about enlargement of the EU to 25 member states, fearing a dilution of its own power and a swing in the power axis toward eastern Europe.

President Chirac explained on Saturday, after the failure of the talks, that a Europe of 25 would be made up of countries with too varied levels of development - especially democratic development.

The coming weeks and months will show, if the idea for a core Europe works out. If not, France still has the fall-back position of supporting the European Constitution - of which 99% has already been agreed.

The UK and the more intergovernmental-minded EU member states might soon find themselves faced with two options: Accepting the European Constitution or living in a European Union ruled by a core-club of countries.