IS soldiers or deranged copycats: the killing spree must stop - Hoofdinhoud

Both Germany and France were shaken by a series of brutal killings and attack in the past ten days. Japan witnessed a mass murder this week, and Orlando and some other shootings in the US are still fresh in our memories. The targets can be anyone: the gay community in Orlando, teenagers in Munich, disabled people in Japan, or a 86 year old priest and nuns in a church in France. In some cases targets are deliberately chosen, in other cases the victims are random, people in the wrong place at the wrong time. The source of inspiration may be IS, Breivik, Hitler or just a personal grievance.

What is striking is the lack of a pattern or connection between the incidents. The lines between terrorism, (mass) murder, psychosis, suicide or crime passionel are increasingly blurred. The method, the number of victims, the profile of the killers and the inspiration for the act vary widely. There are only a few common features: all perpetrators were men, mostly young men, almost all with an immigrant background and almost all with a record of psychiatric conditions, personal trauma or frustration, or involvement in crime. Even if in several cases it is doubtful that the killings have been organised by IS or that IS played any role at all, IS is quick to claim the attacks as a success story, creating the impression of being omnipresent and unbeatable. This leads to a vicious circle whereby IS is becoming more and more attractive as a badge for would be terrorists and copycat killers.

This is further fuelled by media reporting, which creates the impression that all the attacks are connected, whereas reality is infinitely more complex. The label "terrorism" is readily applied, mostly on the basis of the background of the killer, but it is questionable if all these incidents qualify as terrorist attacks or indeed islamist attacks.

As the phenomenon is complex, the answer can therefore not be a simple, one-dimensional one. The war rhetoric of President Hollande may be understandable from the emotional point of view and it sounds determined, but it does not offer any kind of solution to the real threat. If the phenomenon is not properly understood, the remedy will by definition be the wrong one. It is clear that the black and white scheme used so far in the fight against terrorism is outdated.

The solutions are often a response to yesterday's attack, more meant to reassure the public then to avert new attacks. Armed forces on the streets, concrete road blocks, barbed wire, mass surveillance, state of emergency, a ban on rucksacks and security checks everywhere: they create a false sense of security. At best they will delay the attack or force the killers to invent a new method. But they do not protect us from the next attack. The "war" on terror has failed. We need to include new instruments in our counter terrorism toolkit. Maybe less "sexy", but more effective. This also requires a different allocation of budgetary resources.

Real security requires an approach based on true understanding of the phenomenon, and on tackling root causes. A new security strategy must invest heavily in understanding what makes people susceptible to messages of violent extremism. The best way to keep us safe is by preventing people from turning to violence in the first place. The method of IS to merely provide a ready-to-use justification to any Muslim killing non-Muslims, makes it almost impossible to detect a potential killer beforehand with means of (mass) surveillance. Experts have been urging for many years to invest more in human intelligence and local prevention strategies. More lessons can be drawn from experiences with other violent ideologies, for example neo-Nazi groups.

An obvious measure is stepping up psychological support for refugees. Many refugees arrive in Europe with a war trauma, and some are further traumatised by experiences after their arrival. Basic medical support is supplied to refugees, but in some countries there are long waiting lists for urgent psychiatric assistance. Some people do not get the necessary treatment, not even after repeated suicide attempts, and they become a serious liability. Even in the absence of war traumas, psychological and psychiatric support are still taboo in many immigrant communities, or simply not sufficiently accessible for them.

Terrorist organisations are resourceful, changing their tactics all the time so as to outsmart their opponents, always staying one step ahead of police and intelligence services. Our response is usually slow and inadequate. The solution to that problem is not to create unlimited and unchecked powers for the authorities, or megalomaniac IT systems, but rather in smart, flexible units, "disruptive teams" that are able to quickly identify new and unexpected methods and tactics, and fight terrorists with their own means by disrupting their actions.

The killing spree not only costs human lives, not only destroys the lives of the bereft, but it also creates huge tensions in society. Not just IS benefits from the situation, but all kinds of extremist movements. Everyone understands 100% security does not exist. But our security strategy can be much more effective.