Annexes to COM(2017)629 - Report pursuant to article 11(2) of regulation EC 1466/97 on the enhanced surveillance mission in Romania - Main contents
Please note
This page contains a limited version of this dossier in the EU Monitor.
| dossier | COM(2017)629 - Report pursuant to article 11(2) of regulation EC 1466/97 on the enhanced surveillance mission in Romania. |
|---|---|
| document | COM(2017)629  |
| date | October 24, 2017 |
(Forecast data based on the European Commission 2017
spring
forecast)
Table 1: Key economic
indicators overview
2009-2018
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017* | 2018* | |
| Gross Domestic Product | (annual | percentage | change, | unless | otherwise | indicated) | ||||
| Nominal GDP (in bn RON) | 511 | 534 | 565 | 595 | 637 | 668 | 711 | 761 | 806 | 860 |
| Real GDP | -7.1 | -0.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| Private Consumption | -10.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 5.6 |
| Public Consumption | 3.7 | -4.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | -4.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 3.0 |
| Gross fixed capital formation | -36.6 | -2.4 | 2.9 | 0.1 | -5.4 | 3.2 | 8.3 | -3.3 | 0.7 | 3.2 |
| Exports | -5.3 | 15.2 | 11.9 | 1.0 | 19.7 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 6.2 |
| Imports | -20.7 | 12.6 | 10.2 | -1.8 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 8.1 |
| Contribution to GDP growth | ||||||||||
| Domestic demand | -19.9 | -0.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | -1.7 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 4.7 |
| Inventories | 5.9 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -1.4 | 1.6 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Net exports | 6.9 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 3.6 | -0.3 | -1.6 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Prices | ||||||||||
| HICP inflation (average) | 5.6 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | -0.4 | -1.1 | 1.1 | 3.0 |
| HICP inflation (year-end, quarterly) | 4.5 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -1.0 | -0.1 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| Labour market | ||||||||||
| Total employment | 9181 | 9156 | 9082 | 8645 | 8569 | 8635 | 8558 | 8481 | 8543 | 8573 |
| Unemployment rate (harmonised:15-74) | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
| General Government Accounts | (in percent of GDP) | |||||||||
| Government deficit, cash definition ** | -7.1 | -6.3 | -4.2 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -1.7 | -1.4 | -2.4 | -3.0 | -3.0 |
| Government deficit, ESA2010 definition | -9.5 | -6.9 | -5.4 | -3.7 | -2.1 | -1.4 | -0.8 | -3.0 | -3.5 | -3.7 |
| Gross debt, general government, ESA2010 definition | 23.2 | 29.9 | 34.2 | 37.3 | 37.8 | 39.4 | 38.0 | 37.6 | 39.3 | 40.9 |
| Balance of payments | (in percent of GDP) | |||||||||
| Current account balance *** | -4.1 | -4.5 | -4.4 | -4.2 | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -2.4 | -2.8 | -2.9 |
| Trade balance*** | -6.4 | -6.1 | -5.6 | -5.0 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.9 | -1.9 | -2.3 |
| Capital and financial account balance | -3.9 | -4.2 | -3.0 | -1.1 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 | n.a. | n.a. |
| FDI balance | -2.8 | -1.8 | -1.3 | -1.9 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -2.7 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Net international investment position | -62.1 | -62.3 | -64.2 | -67.9 | -61.6 | -56.8 | -53.8 | -49.4 | -47.8 | n.a. |
| Foreign exchange reserves (in bn Euro) | 28.3 | 32.4 | 33.2 | 31.2 | 32.5 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 34.2 | 35.2 | n.a. |
| Gross external debt | 67.4 | 72.9 | 74.1 | 75.5 | 68.0 | 63.0 | 57.5 | 54.8 | 53.2 | n.a. |
| Monetary and exchange rate developments | ||||||||||
| Broad money M3 (annual % change, end of the period) | 9.0 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 11.7 | n.a. |
| NBR policy rate (in %, end of period) | 8.00 | 6.25 | 6.00 | 5.25 | 4.00 | 2.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | n.a. |
| Exchange rate (lei/euro, end of period) | 4.23 | 4.28 | 4.32 | 4.43 | 4.48 | 4.48 | 4.52 | 4.54 | 4.60 | n.a. |
| REER (Unit Labour Costs deflator, % change) | -13.03 | 0.99 | -6.54 | -5.14 | 0.86 | 3.43 | -6.45 | 1.12 | n.a. | n.a. |
Notes: * Forecasts or latest values ** 2017 and 2018 are projections from the Romanian authorities.
*** Current account and trade balances are reported based on the latest Commission forecast using National Accounts Data. Source: BNR and European Commission
3
Table 2: General
government
accounts 2015-2018
| ESA code | 2015 | 2016 | 2017* | 2018* | |
| 1. Taxes on production and imports | D2 | 13.3 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| 2. Current taxes on income and wealth | D5 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.6 |
| 2a. - of which, paid by households and NPISH | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | |
| 2b. - of which, paid by corporations | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | |
| 3. Social contributions | D61 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.4 |
| 4. Sales and other current revenue | 4.4 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | |
| 5. Total current revenue (1+2+3+4) | 32.4 | 30.2 | 29.1 | 29.4 | |
| 6. Compensation of employees | D1 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| 7. Intermediate consumption | P2 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| 8. Social transfers in kind supplied via market producers | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | |
| 9. Social transfers other than in kind | D62 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 11.1 | 11.3 |
| 10. Interest | D41 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 11. Subsidies | D3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 12. Other current expenditure | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | |
| 13. Total current expenditure (6+7+8+9+10+11+12) | 29.4 | 29.5 | 29.7 | 30.3 | |
| 14. Gross saving (5-13) | B8g | 2.9 | 0.7 | -0.6 | -0.9 |
| 15. Capital Transfers, received | D9 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| 16. Gross fixed capital formation | P51 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.9 |
| 17. Other capital expenditure | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |
| 18. Total government revenue (5+15) | TR | 35.0 | 31.7 | 30.6 | 31.5 |
| 19. Total government expenditure (13+16+17) | TE | 35.8 | 34.7 | 34.1 | 35.2 |
| 20. Net lending (+) / net borrowing (-) (18-19) | EDP B9 | -0.8 | -3.0 | -3.5 | -3.7 |
Note:
* European Commission spring 2017 forecast
Source: European commission
Table 3: General
government balance cyclical adjustment
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017* | 2018* | |
| Government balance (ESA-2010) | -9.5 | -6.9 | -5.4 | -3.7 | -2.1 | -1.4 | -0.8 | -3.0 | -3.5 | -3.7 |
| Primary balance | -8.0 | -5.4 | -3.8 | -1.9 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | -1.5 | -2.0 | -2.0 |
| Cyclically adjusted balance | -8.8 | -5.5 | -4.1 | -2.0 | -1.0 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -3.0 | -3.8 | -3.9 |
| Cyclically adjusted primary balance | -7.3 | -4.0 | -2.5 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | -1.5 | -2.2 | -2.3 |
| Structural government balance | -5.6 | -2.9 | -2.5 | -1.0 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -2.6 | -3.9 | -4.0 | |
| GDP growth | -7.1 | -0.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| Potential growth | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| Output gap | -2.0 | -4.0 | -4.0 | -5.0 | -3.3 | -2.4 | -1.3 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
Note:
* European Commission spring 2017 forecast
Source: European commission