Annexes to COM(2012)626 - Progress towards achieving the Kyoto objectives - Main contents
Please note
This page contains a limited version of this dossier in the EU Monitor.
| dossier | COM(2012)626 - Progress towards achieving the Kyoto objectives. |
|---|---|
| document | COM(2012)626  |
| date | October 24, 2012 |
3.1.3. EU-12
Aggregate emissions based on existing domestic policies and measures from the 12 Member States which joined the Union after 2004 are projected to be very close to 2010 emissions and will be about 37.9% below their base year levels in the Kyoto commitment period. Slovenia is the only Member State out of the EU-12 that intends to invest in Kyoto mechanisms. Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia intend to account for carbon sinks. Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia have sold or plan to sell part of their unused Assigned Amount Units (AAUs).
Figure 5: Relative gaps between GHG projections in the non-ETS sectors for the commitment period and the respective 2008-2012 targets based on GHG projections and the use of Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks. Negative and positive values respectively indicate overdelivery or shortfall in percentage of base-year emissions.
Note: For Ireland, the use of unused ETS allowances from the new entrants reserve is taken into account in the non-ETS target
Source: EEA, European Commission
3.2. State of implementation of the Union's climate change policy
The European Climate Change Programme (ECCP)
Across the EU-27, an assessment of Member States' policies and measures identified eight Common and Coordinated Policies and Measures (CCPMs) that are projected to deliver significant GHG emissions savings in the Union. The largest savings can be expected from the EU ETS Directive (2003/87/EC) as revised and the Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) promoting electricity produced from renewable energy sources. In the transport sector, the fuel quality legislation and reduction of CO2 from cars are of significant importance. Further, energy demand will be reduced through the implementation of the Directives on the energy performance of buildings, eco-design requirements, energy taxation and the promotion of co-generation (combined heat and power). Finally, use of the Kyoto Protocol's flexible mechanisms is projected to deliver significant GHG emissions savings.
In addition to these eight key policies and measures, a further five CCPMs were identified that are also predicted to deliver important savings across the Union. These five policies are the Landfill Directive (99/31/EC), the efficiency standards for new hot-water boilers, the Directive on labelling of appliances (2010/30/EU), the Industrial Emissions Directive (2010/75/EU) and the Motor Challenge programme, aimed at improving the energy efficiency of industrial electric motors. A Report from the Commission on the application, effects and adequacy of the Regulation (EC) 842/2006 concludes that this Regulation has already achieved some reduction of emissions of F-Gases compared to a scenario without the Regulation41. Together with the Directive on mobile air-conditioning systems (2006/40/EC), this Regulation has the potential to achieve a significant reduction of projected emissions by 2020 and beyond.
The top eight policies account for 92% of the total expected savings attributed to CCPMs in the EU-27. This underlines the importance of these key policies in helping Member States to achieve their emission reduction commitments.
Recent developments
Since the adoption of the climate and energy package, work on implementation measures is ongoing. Before the end of 2012, about twenty new legal acts and documents have to be in place in order to ensure proper functioning of the EU ETS as revised as well as to prepare the ground for the implementation of national GHG emission targets in the non-ETS sectors.
The revised EU ETS Directive provides for the centralisation of the EU ETS operations into a single European Union registry while at the same time improving its security. This new registry is operated by the Commission and replaces all EU ETS registries previously hosted in the Member States. The regulation establishing a Union Registry was adopted by the Commission in November 2011. The full activation of the Union Registry, including the migration of over 30,000 EU ETS accounts from national registries, took successfully place in June 2012.
The Commission has for a second time amended the list of sectors which are deemed to be exposed to a significant risk of carbon leakage, adding mineral wools to the list. The Commission currently assesses whether Member States' plans to implement the Commission decision on free allocation of allowances to industry are in compliance with the rules.
As of 2012, aviation emissions are subject to a cap in the EU ETS, a change which alone increases the emissions coverage by approximately 10%. Substantial work has gone into implementing this change, including on monitoring and facilitating compliance and on preparing and coordinating, where necessary, action related to enforcement.
The Auctioning Regulation is currently under review, notably as regards the auction time profile with a view to ensuring the orderly functioning of the market and addressing supply-demand imbalances that have been caused by the transition to Phase 3 and been exacerbated by the existence of a surplus of allowances built up as a consequene of the economic crisis. In this context the Commission has also proposed a Decision to clarify the provisions of the EU ETS Directive regarding its own powers to adapt the timing of auctions of emission allowances in such exceptional circumstances.
The European Commission authorised requests from 7 Member States to grant transitional free allocations of allowances to their power sectors beyond 2012. These decisions were taken under strict application of provisions in the Directive which allow, on certain conditions, for time-limited and gradually decreasing exemptions from the general rule of auctioning.
Work on enhanced rules for monitoring and reporting of GHG emissions by operators covered by the EU ETS as well as requirements for the verification of emission reports and the accreditation and supervision of verifiers is ongoing and aims for improved harmonisation of the applied rules. Two new regulations were adopted in June 2012 and will be complemented by guidance documents in time for the third ETS period.
Preparation of the implementing measures under the Effort Sharing Decision is ongoing and currently focuses on determining the absolute values for Member States' annual emissions targets in 2013-2020 and setting rules for transfers of annual emission allocations among Member States as well as ensuring their transparency. The corresponding legal texts are expected to be adopted at the end of 2012 or in early 2013.
In addition, the revision of the EU Monitoring Mechanism and the proposal for accounting of land use, land use change and forestry are currently under negotiation in Council and Parliament. These proposals are driven by the need to address in particular the reporting and accounting needs of the climate and energy package, Europe 2020 Strategy, new requirements deriving from the Durban decisions as well as lessons learnt so far.
In June 2012, the European Parliament, the Council and the EU Commission reached a political agreement on the Energy Efficiency Directive. This directive will contribute to achieving Europe's 20% energy efficiency target for 2020.
Work on the implementating measures for Regulation (EC) 443/2009 related to CO2 from cars and Regulation (EU) 510/2011 related to CO2 from light commercial vehicles is ongoing. The implementation of the cars measures is more advanced than that for light commercial vehicles but the latter will be consistent with the former. The Commission has now made proposals to implement 2020 CO2 targets for cars and light commercial vehicles which will now be considered in the Council and Parliament.
On the mainstreaming of climate action into EU policies the Commission proposal for the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) 2014-2020 includes for the first time an objective to spend at least 20% of the overall budget on climate related action. In particular, in Cohesion Policy, a stand-alone thematic objective has been proposed for climate change adaptation in addition to the low carbon thematic objective and a minimum floor of 20%/6% for the more developed regions / less developed regions for measures to increase energy efficiency has been included. New greening measures are also foreseen in the proposed revised Common Agricultural Policy and the Rural Development Fund, and 35% of “Horizon 2020”, the EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation should be allocated to climate relevant research and innovation. As a new element, the LIFE Programme will have a sub-programme dedicated to Climate Action, representing around 25% of the total LIFE Programme. The Commission will ensure that progress towards the proposed 20% climate spending objective will be tracked and reported on.
Finally, a staff working document (SWD(2012) 5 final) assessing the impacts of further reducing emissions from 20% to 30% by 2020 in each of the Member States was issued in early 2012.
Legal acts recently adopted
Implementation of the climate and energy package:
(1) EU ETS Auctioning – early auctions: Commission Regulation (EU) No 1210/2011 amending Regulation (EU) No 1031/2010 in particular to determine the volume of greenhouse gas emission allowances to be auctioned prior to 2013.
(2) EU ETS Registry – Union Registry: Commission Regulation (EU) No 1193/2011 establishing a Union Registry for the trading period commencing on 1 January 2013, and subsequent trading periods, of the Union emissions trading scheme
(3) EU ETS Harmonised allocation rules: Commission Decision 2011/278/EU8 determining transitional Union-wide rules for harmonised free allocation of emission allowances.
(4) EU ETS Monitoring, reporting, verification and accreditation rules: Commission Regulation (EU) No 600/2012 of 21 June 2012 on the verification of greenhouse gas emission reports and tonne-kilometre reports and the accreditation of verifiers and Commission Regulation (EU) No 601/2012 of 21 June 2012 on the monitoring and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions.
(5) EU ETS Use of international credits: The Commission Regulation (EU) No 550/201110 on determining certain restrictions applicable to the use of international credits from projects involving industrial gases.
Other:
(6) Aviation and the EU ETS: Commission Regulation (EU) No 394/201111 amending Regulation (EC) No 748/2009 on the list of aircraft operators.
(7) CO2 and cars: Commission Regulation (EU) No 63/201113 laying down detailed provisions for the application for a derogation from the specific CO2 emission targets.
(8) CO2 and vans: Commission Implementing Decision 2012/99/EU - on the detailed arrangements for the collection of premiums for excess CO2 emissions from new light commercial vehicles.
3.3. Implementation of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)
2012 will be the last year of the second trading period of the EU ETS (2008-2012). In 2013, a substantially revised system will begin its operation.
3.3.1. Second trading period (2008-2012)
The EU-wide average annual cap for 2008-2012 amounts to 2081 million allowances per year. In 2011, EU ETS covered more than 12,000 power plants and manufacturing installations. Verified emissions of greenhouse gases from these installations dropped to 1904 million tonnes of CO2-eq. in 2011, more than 2% below the 2010 level and almost 9% below the cap. This was despite an expanding economy in Europe.
The level of compliance by the installations was very high. Only less than 1% of the installations participating in the EU ETS did not surrender allowances covering all their 2011 emissions by the deadline of 30 April 2012.
3.3.2. Use of JI and CDM by operators
As part of the second National Allocation Plans (NAPs), a limit was established by each Member State for the maximum use of project-based credits by operators (Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)). In total and on average, up to 278 million CERs or ERUs may be used per year by ETS installations from all Member States in the second trading period, which corresponds to 13.4 % of the EU-wide cap for this period. In 2008-2011, operators used 555 million CERs or ERUs which was 7% of all units surrendered for compliance. From 2013 onwards the rules for the use of JI and CDM credits will be revised as set in the EU ETS Directive.16
3.4. Projected use of Kyoto mechanisms by Union's governments
Ten Member States of the EU-15 as well as Slovenia have decided to purchase and use international credits from Kyoto mechanisms to reach their Kyoto targets. Together, these EU-15 Member States would acquire up to 76 Mt CO2-eq. per year for compliance under the first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol. This would represent approximately 1.8 percentage points towards the EU-15 Kyoto target of -8 % (see Table 12 in the SWP).
These 10 Member States together have decided to invest up to € 3.0 billion to acquire units through JI, CDM or AAU trading. Austria, the Netherlands, Spain, Ireland and Belgium allocated the largest budgets (€ 611 million, € 500 million, € 382 million, € 290 million and € 276 million, respectively) for the five-year commitment period. In Slovenia, the budget has been estimated for € 80 million. However, given the impact of the recent recession on GHG emissions MS might not need as many international credits as initially estimated. So far, this hypothesis seems to be supported by the fact that the amount of international credits actually delivered to Member States' accounts in registries only amounts to about 32 Mt CO2-eq.
As regards AAUs sold by Member States, according to data in the registries about 68 Mt CO2-eq. have been transferred so far, while some contracted amounts may not be delivered yet. Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia reported that they intend to further sell AAUs. One Member State (UK) has legislated that it would retire any surplus AAUs between the Kyoto target and the UK unilateral ‘carbon budget’ after the 1st commitment period.
3.5. Projected use of carbon sinks
In addition to the policies and measures targeting various sources of GHG emissions, Member States can make use of carbon sinks. The information provided so far indicates that total net sequestration during the commitment period from afforestation and reforestation activities under Art. 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol will be about 14.8 MtCO2 per year for the EU-15. In addition, the use of activities under Art. 3.4 is projected to contribute 30.6 MtCO2 per year of the commitment period in the EU-15. Taking in addition into account contributions from EU-12, the accounting of these activities will amount to 25.8 and 38.4 MtCO2 per year (for details see Table 13 in the SWP).
Together, activities under Art. 3.3 and 3.4 in the EU-15 Member States are projected to reduce emissions by 57.9 Mt CO2 per year of the commitment period. This is equivalent to a bit more than 1 percentage point of the EU-15 reduction commitment of 8 % during the 1st commitment period compared to base year emissions.
4. Meeting the 2020 target
4.1. Union's GHG emission reduction target by 2020
The Climate and Energy Package set a 20% GHG emission reduction target for EU-27 by 2020 compared to 1990, which is equivalent to -14% compared with 2005. This effort will be divided between the EU ETS and non-ETS sectors as follows:
(a) 21% reduction in EU ETS sector emissions by 2020 compared to 2005;
(b) reduction of around 10% by 2020 compared to 2005 for the sectors that are not covered by the EU ETS.
These greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets were included in the Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth.
4.2. Policies contributing to the fulfilment of targets
The emission caps from 2013 until 2020 are defined in the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) and the revised ETS Directive. The EU ETS is a market based mechanism covering over 12,000 installations. The ESD obliges Member States to limit their GHG emissions between 2013 and 2020 according to a linear trajectory with binding annual targets which will ensure a gradual move towards agreed 2020 targets. The ESD regulates GHG emissions in all sectors except installations and aviation covered by the EU ETS, LULUCF and international maritime shipping. In the ESD sectors, complementary Union-wide policies will contribute to reaching the targets by Member States, such as the binding targets for renewable energy, energy efficiency measures, the emission performance standards for new light-duty vehicles, the CCS Directive, F-Gases Regulation or the Fuel Quality Directive. Also the Commission's and Member States' efforts to facilitate the demonstration and deployment of innovative technologies in reducing GHG emissions such as under the SET Plan and the NER300 could play a role here.
Under the ESD, Member States will be responsible for implementing these Union-wide policies and measures in these sectors, and, if necessary, for defining additional national policies and measures to limit their emissions. A robust reporting and compliance system will be put in place for monitoring Member States' action and help them make any necessary corrective measures if they fail to meet their targets.
4.3. Projected distance to targets
Despite the positive trends towards KP commitment achievement shown by 2008-2012 projections, more efforts and additional policies will be necessary to achieve the Union's 2020 objectives. The flexibilities provided for in the ESD and the revised ETS Directive, such as the use of international credits, will also contribute to the attainment of the targets. Figure 6 shows first estimates of the gap between non-ETS GHG emissions projections by 2020 and 2020 targets.
According to these provisional projections still much effort will be needed by individual Member States to deliver on their 2020 targets set for the non-ETS sectors. Only 13 Members States can expect to reach these commitments with existing policies and measures. Further 8 MS could meet their targets with planned additional policies and measures. 6 Member States are unlikely to be able to deliver on their commitments even with the additional measures foreseen for now. However, as regards EU-27, the estimates show that the overall non-ETS target would be delivered. This analysis does not yet take into account the use of flexibilities provided for in the ESD, such as the use of international credits.
In order to pave the way for a smooth compliance with the 2020 target, it is imperative that Member States not only ensure timely delivery of emissions reductions of existing policies and measures but also accelerate the development and full implementation of their additional policies and measures as well as consider other options including the use of international credits. More detailed country-specific recommendations were issued by the Council in July 2012 as part of the 2012 European Semester.
Figure 6: Projected gap to 2020 targets for non-ETS sectors. Negative and positive values respectively indicate overdelivery and shortfall in percentage of 2005 emissions.
Note: (1) The underpinning data for this calculation are based on MS projections for 2020 non-ETS emissions, gap-filled and adjusted where necessary3, as well as estimated 2020 non-ETS targets for MS (still subject to some changes). Several Member States (CZ, EE, FI, LT, NL, PL) have not provided specific national projections for non-ETS sectors, so the share of these emissions had to be estimated. (2) The assessment provided in this figure should be treated as indicative, due to differences in methodology and assumptions. Some data, such as the Greek and Lithuanian projection for instance deviate substantially from the projections made for the 'EU energy trends to 2030 - update 2009' (Publication by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy in collaboration with Climate Action DG and Mobility and Transport DG, ISBN 978-92-79-16191-9).
Source: EEA, European Commission
5. Adaptation to climate change
Reducing emissions in the coming decades can still avoid large scale dangerous climate change. However, even if the world keeps the average annual global temperature increase to below 2 degrees Celsius, European citizens and business will be affected by the adverse effects of inevitable climate change and therefore will have to adapt cost-effectively.
The European Commission adopted the White Paper on Adaptation to Climate change in April 2009 outlining the Union's policy framework for action to improve Europe's resilience to climate change. The 33 actions announced in the White Paper are now in the final stages of implementation (see Table 15 in SWP).
Climate-ADAPT, the European Climate Change Adaptation Platform (http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/) for information sharing, was successfully launched in March 2012. The number of hits per day is close to 1000. Climate-Adapt fosters a better understanding of the state of play of research on adaptation and adaptation policies, projects, programmes and frameworks. Adaptation case studies and good practices are made available, as well as a mapping of national and international activities.
The European Union's Adaptation Strategy is under preparation and foreseen for adoption in Spring 2013. The general aim of the EU Adaptation Strategy is to identify actions at EU level that will contribute to making Europe climate resilient, and to do so at the lowest possible cost. This means enhancing the EU's preparedness and capacity to respond to the impacts of climate changefocusing in particular on transboundary issues and sectors that are closely integrated at EU level through common policies.
6. Situation in the Union's candidate countries
Between 199017 and 2010 Croatia's GHG emissions decreased by 9%, and compared to 2009 they decreased by 2%. However, according to the GHG projections included in the 5th National Communication, Croatia is projected to face difficulties with achieving its Kyoto target with the current set of policies and measures.
Iceland's GHG emissions between 1990 and 2010 increased by 30% and in 2010 were 3.4% lower than in 2009. Taking into account decision 14/CP.7, and according to the GHG projections included in the 5th National Communication, Iceland is on track to meet its Kyoto target.
Turkey’s GHG emissions increased by 115% between 1990 and 2010 and 8.7% between 2009 and 2010. While Turkey is an Annex I Party, it has no GHG target under the current 1st commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.
An up-to-date inventory of GHG emissions in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia is not available. Between 1990 and 2005 total GHG emissions decreased by around 19%.
For more information on GHG emissions in the Union's candidate countries please see section 2 of the SWP.