Annexes to COM(2010)569 - Progress towards achieving the kyoto objectives - Main contents
Please note
This page contains a limited version of this dossier in the EU Monitor.
| dossier | COM(2010)569 - Progress towards achieving the kyoto objectives. |
|---|---|
| document | COM(2010)569  |
| date | October 12, 2010 |
7. Aviation and EU ETS: Commission Regulation (EU) No 606/201011 on the approval of a simplified tool developed by the European organisation for air safety navigation (Eurocontrol) to estimate the fuel consumption of certain small emitting aircraft operators.
Implementation of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)
The first period of the EU ETS covered the years 2005-2007. Currently, operators subject to the EU ETS are in the middle of the second trading period (2008-2012). In 2013, a revised system will begin its operation. For more information on the implementation of the revised EU ETS see section 3.2.
Second trading period (2008-2012)
The EU-wide cap for 2008-2012 amounts to 2.081 billion allowances per year, 10.5% lower than what was initially proposed in the national allocation plans submitted by the Member States. In 2009, 11,032 installations participated in the system.
The total amount of verified emissions in 2009 from EU ETS installations in the EU-27 was 1.85 billion tonnes12 of CO2, almost 12% lower than in 2008. The drop of emissions is attributed to three main factors, i.e. reduced economic activity as a result of the recession, low level of gas prices throughout 2009, as well as reduction measures undertaken by installations.
Use of JI and CDM by operators
As part of the second National Allocation Plans (NAPs), a limit was established by each Member State for the maximum use of project-based credits by operators (Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)). In total, up to 278 million CERs or Emission Reduction Units (ERUs) may be used per year by ETS installations from all Member States in the second trading period, which corresponds to 13.4 % of the EU-wide cap for this period. In 2009, operators used 82 million CERs or ERUs which was 4.39% of all surrendered allowances. From 2013 onwards the rules for the use of JI and CDM credits will be revised as set in the revised EU ETS Directive.13
Projected use of Kyoto mechanisms by government
Ten Member States of the EU-15 as well and Slovenia have decided to use Kyoto mechanisms to reach their Kyoto targets. Together, these EU-15 Member States would acquire 116.7 Mt CO2-eq. per year for compliance under the first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol. This represents approximately 2.7 percentage points towards the EU-15 Kyoto target of -8 % (see Table 12 in the SWD). However, when looking at the amount of credits already delivered to the Member States' accounts in the registry, so far, the figure is much smaller and amounts to about 28 Mt CO2-eq.
These 10 Member States together have decided to invest about € 3 billion to acquire units through JI, CDM or emissions trading. Spain, Austria, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Portugal allocated the largest budgets (€ 638 million, € 531 million, € 507 million, € 360 million and € 305 million, respectively, for the five-year commitment period). In Slovenia, the budget has been estimated for € 80 million.
As regards AAUs sold by Member States, according to data in the registry about 56 Mt CO2-eq. have been transferred. Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia and Slovakia reported that they intend to sell credits.
Projected use of carbon sinks
In addition to the policies and measures targeting various sources of GHG emissions, Member States can make use of carbon sinks (see Table 13 in the SWD). The information provided so far indicates that the total net sequestration during the commitment period from afforestation and reforestation activities under Art. 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol will be about 12.1 MtCO2 per year for the EU-15. In addition, the use of activities under Art.3.4 is projected to contribute 27.7 MtCO2 per year of the commitment period in the EU-15 and will amount to 34.2 MtCO2 per year taking into account contributions from EU-12.
Together, activities under Art. 3.3 and 3.4 in the EU-15 Member States are projected to reduce emissions by 42.5 Mt CO2 per year of the commitment period equivalent to about 12.5% of the EU-15 reduction commitment of 341 Mt CO2 per year during the commitment period compared to base year emissions.
MEETING THE 2020 TARGET
EU GHG emission reduction target by 2020
The Climate and Energy package set a 20% GHG emission reduction target for EU-27 by 2020. Total EU effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% compared to 1990 by 2020 (which also accounts to -14% compared with 2005) will be divided between the EU ETS and non-ETS sectors as follows:
8. 21% reduction in EU ETS sector emissions compared to 2005;
9. reduction of around 10% compared to 2005 for the sectors that are not covered by the EU ETS.
These greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets were included in the Europe 2020 strategy for jobs and smart, sustainable and inclusive growth adopted by the European Council in June 2010. The Europe 2020 strategy will require tracking progress towards the targets on an annual basis.
Policies contributing to the fulfilment of targets
The emission caps from 2013 until 2020 are defined in the Effort Sharing Decision and the revised ETS Directive. In parallel, other EU-wide policies will contribute to reaching the targets by Member States, such as the binding targets for renewable energy, the emission performance standards for new passengers vehicles, the CCS Directive or the Fuel Quality Directive. On top of these EU-wide policies, national policies will play an important role, especially for the reduction of non-ETS emissions.
Projected distance to targets
As shown in table 1 and according to the Commission's latests projections that incorporate the effect of the economic crisis, implemented national policy measures as of 2009 would not be sufficient to reach the EU emission reduction targets in the year 2020.
Table 1: EU-27 internal GHG emission reductions in the baseline
EU27 baseline scenario | Total GHG | Non-ETS sectors |
Total GHG emissions 2005-2020 | -7% | -3.5% |
Reduction targets 2005-2020 | -14% | -10% |
Note: For more details on projections see COM(2010) 265 final and the accompanying Staff Working Document SEC(2010) 650, Part 2
Source: European Commission
Despite the positive trends towards KP commitment achievement shown by 2008-2012 projections, more effort and additional policies will be necessary to achieve the 2020 objectives . The flexibilities provided for in the Effort Sharing Decision and the revised ETS Directive, such as the use of project credits, will also contribute to the attainment of the targets.
Total EU-27 non-ETS GHG emissions are projected to decrease by 3.5% between 2005 and 2020 according to the PRIMES-GAINS baseline (see table 1). This decrease is mainly driven by non-CO2 emissions reductions of around 8% and a stabilisation of CO2 emissions, which see a decrease of around 1%. As expected, in the year 2020 the EU level non-ETS target of around -10% is unlikely to be achieved. Without use of JI/CDM the distance to target at EU level is around 6% (see figure 6), hence additional measures will still be necessary, with synergies between the implementation of the Renewables Directive and of the Effort Sharing Decision. Ten Member States are projected to meet their non-ETS target already with the current set of policies and measures as illustrated with a "-" in the figure 6. These are Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Portugal and Romania. According to PRIMES/GAINS projections, seventeen Member States including the eight largest non-ETS emitters and the EU-27 as a whole would miss their non-ETS targets.
Figure 6: Projected gap to 2020 targets for non-ETS sectors
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Source : European Commission; non-ETS sector scope as of 2013, i.e. excluding also ETS sectors which only enter the ETS by 2013, to enable data comparabillity over time
SITUATION IN THE EU CANDIDATE COUNTRIES
Between 199014 and 2008 Croatia's GHG emissions decreased by 0.6% and compared to 2007 decreased by 3.7%. According to the GHG projections included in the 5th National Communication, Croatia is projected to face difficulties with achieving its Kyoto target with the current set of policies and measures.
Iceland's GHG emissions between 1990 and 2008 increased by 44% and in 2008 were 9% higher than in 2007. Taking into account decision 14/CP.7, according to the GHG projections included in the 5th National Communication, Iceland is on track to meet its Kyoto target.
In 2008, Turkey’s GHG emissions were 366.5 MtCO2-eq compared to 187 MtCO2-eq. in 1990, so increased by 96% and comparing to 2007 decreased by 3.5%. Turkey has no GHG limitation commitment under the Kyoto Protocol.
An up-to-date inventory of GHG emissions in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia is not available. Most recent GHG data is included in the 2nd National Communication and covers the period 1990-2002. Between 1990 and 2002 total GHG emissions decreased by around 10%.
For more information please see section 2 of the SWD.